Nuclear

IAEA Projects 950 GW of Global Nuclear Power Capacity by 2050

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said generation capacity of nuclear power worldwide is expected to rise more than the group previously expected, to as much as 950 GW of generation by 2050. The IAEA in a report published Sept. 16 revised its annual projection for a fourth straight year, saying global nuclear capacity could jump by 2.5 times its current capacity by mid-century.

The agency said small modular reactors (SMRs) would make a “significant contribution” to higher nuclear generation. The group published its projections Monday in “Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050“. The IAEA, which has published the report for more than 40 years, said its data “aligns with the global consensus on the need to accelerate the deployment of nuclear energy.”

“Following the success of COP28 in Dubai and the first-ever Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels [Belgium], the global momentum behind nuclear energy continues at pace,” said IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi on Monday. “The new IAEA projections reflect increasing acknowledgement of nuclear power as a clean and secure energy supply, as well as increasing interest in SMRs to target both electric and non-electric applications to meet climate goals and foster sustainable development.” Grossi announced the agency’s new projections in his opening statement at the 68th IAEA General Conference in Vienna, Austria, which runs today through Sept. 20.

The United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, last year for the first time included nuclear power in the Global Stocktake, an inventory of measures being taken to support deployment of low-emission technologies to help achieve decarbonization.

371.5 GW in Operation

The IAEA report said that at year-end 2023, 413 nuclear power reactors were operational worldwide, with combined generation capacity of 371.5 GW. In the high-case scenario of the new IAEA outlook, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to 950 GW by 2050. The group said that even in its low-case projection, global capacity in 2050 would reach 514 GW, about 40% more than today. The agency said SMRs “account for about one-quarter of the capacity added in the high case and for 6% in the low-case scenario.”

First concrete for Unit 5 at the Ningde nuclear power plant in Fujian Province, China, was poured on July 28, 2024. The site at present has four operating reactors, with generation capacity of 4,072 MW. Unit 5, along with a planned Unit 6 at the site, will each have 1,200 MW of capacity. Source: CGN

The IAEA’s estimates consider several factors, including all operating reactors, potential lifetime extensions, possible power uprates, planned shutdowns, and expected construction projects in the next few decades. The group noted that some 30 countries that do not currently have nuclear power plants “are either considering or moving forward with plans to introduce nuclear power into their energy mix.” The group also noted that several countries “are expanding and extending the lifetimes of existing nuclear power plants.”

The report notes that extending the lifecycle of existing nuclear reactors is “One of the most cost-effective sources of low-emission electricity,” said the agency in its high-case scenario assumes “that the operating lifetimes of most nuclear power reactors scheduled for retirement will be extended.”

China is leading the world in construction of new reactors. A report in August of this year said government officials had approved 11 new reactors, including a fourth-generation design, as part of a $31 billion investment in new nuclear capacity.

Factors Supporting Nuclear Deployment

The Nuclear Energy Summit earlier this year in Brussels, organized by IAEA and the Belgian government, identified several factors supporting an increase in nuclear power, including increased access to financing for new-build projects. Other factors include what the group call “favorable energy market frameworks,” along with workforce development “and more proactive support to newcomer countries.”

The report published Monday said reaching the high-case scenario for nuclear generation capacity will depend on government policies, along with investment support. It also said demonstration projects will be needed to study technology for new reactors. The IAEA also said a favorable regulatory environment, and global collaboration, will be needed, particularly in the development of SMRs.

The IAEA from Oct. 21-25 will host the International Conference on SMRs and their Applications in Vienna, which will bring together various stakeholders to discuss how to accelerate deployment of SMRs.

—Darrell Proctor is senior editor for POWER (@POWERmagazine).