It's the End of the World as We Know It — Do You Feel Fine?

I thought the title from R.E.M.’s 1987 song was a fitting headline for this article. I contemplated using Bob Dylan’s “The Times They Are A-Changin’,” but I thought R.E.M.’s “stream of consciousness” seemed more appropriate.

I’d like to preface this article by saying it’s not intended to be a doomsday diatribe; I’m just documenting what I’ve been observing over the past few weeks and months—heck, maybe even years. You are likely seeing, or even experiencing, some of these things yourself, so I’m not suggesting I have a unique perspective, just a platform to distribute the message on.

Record Heat

June 2024 was the warmest June on record globally, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), an information service that tracks climate data on behalf of the European Commission with funding from the European Union. This was the 13th month in a row that was the warmest in the ERA5 data record for the respective month of the year. While unusual, C3S said a similar streak of monthly global temperature records happened previously in 2015/2016.

It’s also notable that the global-average temperature for the past 12 months (July 2023–June 2024) was the highest on record, at 0.76C (1.37F) above the 1991–2020 average and 1.64C (2.95F) above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. This was the 12th consecutive month to reach or break the 1.5C (2.7F) threshold, which you may remember was the stretch target set in the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement, which is a legally binding international treaty adopted by 196 parties on Dec. 12, 2015, specifically aims to hold the increase in the global average temperature “to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.”

It should, of course, be noted that recording 12 consecutive months of global average temperatures exceeding the 1.5C threshold doesn’t mean the Paris Agreement stretch target has been permanently breached. For its own part, C3S stressed that the Paris Agreement targets are for the average temperature of the planet over a 20- or 30-year period, so we’re not there yet, but the trend doesn’t look good.

Hurricane Beryl

Meanwhile, the average sea surface temperature (SST) has also been skyrocketing. In fact, from mid-March 2023 through the end of June 2024, there were new SST records set on each and every day. In June, the SST, averaged over 60°S–60°N, was 20.85C (69.53F), the highest value on record for the month. This was the 15th month in a row that the SST has been the warmest in the ERA5 data record for the respective month of the year.

The warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are one of the drivers behind the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) prediction of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. NOAA said up to 25 storms could be named this year, which requires winds of 39 miles per hour (mph) or more, and that up to 13 of those could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater).

The first named hurricane of 2024 was Beryl. It formed as a tropical depression on June 28, and rapidly intensified into a hurricane within the first 24 hours. In the following 24 hours, Beryl underwent another instance of rapid intensification, becoming an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane. At that point, Beryl was the first Category 4 hurricane to form in the month of June.

Beryl made landfall on Carriacou Island on July 1, as a strong Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds of 150 mph. It then tracked into the Caribbean Sea, where it continued to gain strength. On July 2, Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic and only the second Category 5 hurricane to ever occur in July after Hurricane Emily in 2005, according to the National Hurricane Center. However, Beryl beat Emily’s record by more than two weeks.

After striking Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula on July 5, Beryl re-strengthened into a hurricane over very warm Gulf waters. It ultimately made landfall in the U.S. on July 8 as a Category 1 hurricane on Matagorda Peninsula, a 38-mile-long barrier island on the Texas Gulf Coast, less than 100 miles from Houston. The effects in Houston were enormous, as more than 2.1 million CenterPoint Energy customers lost power. More than 860,000 were still without power on July 12.

Significant Anomalies

NOAA, in its June Global Climate Report, mentioned several items of note that happened during the month across the globe. Among them was that Antarctic sea ice extent for June ranked as the second-lowest on record. In Pantanal, a natural region within portions of Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay, encompassing the world’s largest tropical wetland area and the world’s largest flooded grasslands, more than 2,500 wildfires were reported in June, the most ever so early in the year. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall in Bangladesh, southeastern China, El Salvador, and South Africa affected literally millions of people, causing flooding and dozens of deaths.

“This is more than a statistical oddity and it highlights a large and continuing shift in our climate,” Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S, said, concerning the 13 straight months of record-breaking global temperatures. “Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm.”

Is it the end of the world as we know it? I don’t know, but I can tell you that I don’t feel fine.

—Aaron Larson is POWER’s executive editor.