Report Says China, India Account for Nearly All New Coal-Fired Generation
Research from a group that tracks fossil fuel and other energy projects shows that just 15 countries, led by China and India, account for 98% of coal-fired power plants under development worldwide.
Global Energy Monitor (GEM), a San Francisco, California-based non-governmental organization, in its latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) said China and India alone account for 86% of that total. An article posted September 3 on the Carbon Brief website, written by the GCPT research team at GEM, provided context for the report, and said the number of countries with coal-fired power in either pre-construction or construction phases has dropped to 40 this year, down from 75 countries developing projects in 2014. Carbon Brief is a UK-based website that specializes “in the science and policy of climate change.”
GEM’s GCPT catalogs coal-fired power units with 30 MW or more of generation capacity. The biannual report was first published in 2014.
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The report said that despite a move away from coal-fired power in many countries, the number of new proposed coal-fueled units is outpacing the number of projects being canceled, along with the amount of generation being retired. GEM’s research showed that more than 60 GW of new coal-fired generation capacity was either proposed in revived in the first half of this year, “compared to 33.7 GW that was shelved or canceled over the same period.”
GEM on Tuesday wrote that the latest GCPT looks at “some of the most significant trends driving the continued development of coal across the 15 largest markets, drawing insight from the GCPT, as well as wider context.” The countries include China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe, along with Vietnam, Laos, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, South Africa, Pakistan, the Philippines, Kyrgyzstan, and Mongolia.
Recent Resurgence in Coal Power
The report said a resurgence in coal-fired generation began in China in 2022, with India showing an uptick in 2024. “In fact, as shown in the figure below, almost all [97%] of the new and newly revived proposals in the first half of 2024 are located in China and India.” The researchers also noted that “of the 1.8 GW of newly proposed capacity in the rest of the world, more than 40% is sponsored by Chinese companies.”
GEM said that as of June of this year, China had “1,147 GW of operational coal capacity spread across nearly 3,200 units, representing more than half [54%] of the world’s total operating coal capacity.” The GCPT said China approved more than 100 GW of new coal-fired capacity in both 2022 and 2023, but “The country drastically reduced approvals for new coal power in the first half of 2024, granting permission to only 12 projects totaling 9.1 GW.”
China, though, began construction on more than 41 GW of new coal-fired capacity in the first half of this year, according to GEM, with more than 8.6 GW of new generation entering commercial operation from January through June. The report notes that “the Chinese government has a target of commissioning 80 GW of coal capacity in 2024, suggesting a potential surge in the second half of the year.”
The GCPT said that retirements of coal-fired units in China totaled 1.1 GW of capacity in the first half of 2024, and said that China has retired or shuttered 12.3 GW of coal power from 2021 to this year. The report also said, “China must remove 17.7 GW of capacity from its coal power fleet in the next 18 months if it wants to fulfill its promise to shut down 30 GW of coal power during the 14th ‘Five-Year Plan’ period.” China’s Five-Year Plans are economic and social development initiatives issued by the Chinese Communist Party. The current plan covers 2021-2025.
Paris Agreement Sparks Carbon-Neutral Targets
GEM on Tuesday noted that “The signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 kick-started momentum in the global shift away from coal. To date, 75 countries have established carbon neutrality goals for 2050 or earlier, and over 100 countries are coal-free or have an established coal phaseout date in 2040 or earlier.” The group also said the “pipeline of coal under development has declined by 62% compared to a decade ago, from 1,576 GW in 2014 to 604 GW today, according to the latest data from the GCPT.”
GEM noted that none of the 15 countries continuing to lead development of coal-fired generation “have an established coal phaseout target.” The GCPT reports that “590 GW of that 604 GW [in development] is concentrated in a handful of countries, dominated by China [70%] and India [16%). The other 14 GW, or 2% of the total capacity, is spread across 25 countries, each with less than 1.5 GW under development.”
Some of the 15 countries, including Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Africa, have so-called “just energy transition partnership (JETP)” agreements to transition away from coal-fired power. The countries’ energy plans, though, still allow for development of coal-fueled generation.
GEM officials on Tuesday wrote that, “The JETP agreements have also yet to resolve several thorny issues, such as how to treat ‘captive’ coal plants that supply electricity off-grid, typically to large industrial sites. Increased JETP ambitions could help these countries achieve Paris-aligned emissions reductions.”
The authors noted that China remains “involved in coal development in Indonesia, Zimbabwe, Laos, Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia, including some capacity proposed after China’s 2021 pledge to stop building new coal plants abroad. Apparent exceptions to the 2021 moratorium have emerged for projects designed for captive use or proposed as expansions at existing China-backed projects.” The report also said Russia is supporting “many new coal proposals in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.”
—Darrell Proctor is senior editor for POWER (@POWERmagazine).